UH OH HURRICANE IRMA EYEBALLS HOUSTON NEW ORLEANS
UPDATE Storm continues westward not NORTH WEST. NOAA models continue to predict right hard hook north off Cuba. Our projections take it into the Gulf of Mexico. Hype hype hype-o-RAMA! Never have I seen such rabid global warmists making such a pathetic and incorrect noise. Who doesn’t like a novelty item? Well here is one for you. Overnight the now fully entangled spaghetti models of IRMA the KillaCANE moved west. They didn’t just move west they moved south and west taking aim at the Straight of Florida. The Straight separates South Florida and Cuba. The Storm appears to be looking to thread the needle. That would position it slap in the Gulf of Mexico. From there it has two big targets: Houston and New Orleans. UH OH HURRICANE IRMA EYEBALLS HOUSTON NEW ORLEANS.
Highly recommend you go to Hurricanecity.com. We have found their analysis generally correct. Though they are showing the NOAA spaghetti projections.
NOAA is your AMTRACK Weather predictor intended to sell big government through the horror of weather manipulation.
The Red Arrows in the photo above are our own HYPE. Don’t take them too seriously. We are looking for clicks to oppose NOAA and their cyclonic big brother Monopoly weather hype machine. Where do I get my expertise in weather? I designed and built the first Satellite Weather Station on the Continent of Australia. The 7th Fleet wants weather NOT HYPE!
“Houston… We have a problem…
Houston is still under water from Harvey. Harvey dumped trillions of gallons of water sinking most of Houston. If Irma hits it will bring in some hellish winds especially if it strengthens across the warm Gulf of Mexico. This is a doubtful scenario but NOAA has so bungled the spaghetti models and Cone predictions that we have to wait to see how far south and west this storm travels to get into the gulf. If it goes far enough south it will landfall in Mexico. We certainly hope it doesn’t go to Houston but we won’t know that for a few days.
WHY IS NOAA STILL AIMING THIS THING AT FLORIDA?
Clearly they can see there was a big shift South and West overnight of the models. This is a slow moving storm. Had it been moving faster, the high pressure pocket above it would have had less impact. But Harvey has created a low above this Atlantic high and shoved the high southward. This has caused IRMA the slow storm to move south. Some say it may drop below Cuba allowing the storm to grow in intensity in that unseasonably warm Global Warmed Gulf!
This was NOAA yesterday!
This is NOAA just 4 freaking hours ago. Yet the drive-by media is still warning Florida up the East Coast. It ain’t happening. The shift and convergence of the spaghetti models was so abrupt last night that the more usual path for Cape Hurricanes has emerged.
Even if the storm swings upward once in the Gulf that is little consolation. That just aims it toward New Orleans, Mississippi and coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Once in the Gulf there are really no steering winds to push it North especially since a higher pressure system has formed behind Harvey as it exits toward New England. If this storm had been moving a lot faster it likely would have pushed out to sea and not been a threat to the USA. But it is a threat now and it is a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.
Here is Accuweather’s track forecast:
Apparently Accuweather is trying to incorporate the most populous regions it can. Unless that large high pressure system moves strongly East, the curve out to sea won’t happen. The high is pushing southward against a very slow moving storm.
The Florida Target if any shows a glance up the coast around TAMPA however to do that IRMA must turn abruptly Northward which at this point is simply not showing in the modeling.
The route to the Gulf is more likely with a gradual turn North.
But this storm will slow significantly at Hispaniola. Hispaniola has high elevations and can cut hurricane power significantly. At present this is a CAT 2 storm being hyped to Cat 3. Slow moving storms lack the tight packed center so the inner walls are always having to reform. This can often result in a significant loss of power and can even disintegrate into a disorganized tropical storm. It is not always just a matter of hitting warm surface water.
A good bit of the problem ironically is Harvey. Harvey has left a high pressure system over most of the South as it has pushed its low above the high pressure system in the Mid Atlantic. Thus, the high pressure is pushing IRMA southwest and the high pressure system in the Southern United States is pushing steering winds south as well. At that point even the Jet Stream over the South is pushing downward squeezing this storm more westerly to the Gulf of Mexico.
Will this storm thread the needle to the Gulf?
It is possible because it is a very small diameter storm, but more likely it will hit the string of islands including Hispaniola which is notorious for cutting hurricanes to pieces. Our guess is this will be a weak Cat 2 or Cat 1 by the time it leaves Cuba and heads into the gulf. As you may have noticed Harvey disintegrated rather rapidly down to a lingering tropical storm. It had similar characteristics as a slow moving if not nearly stationary storm.
While there will be increased noise from the Media and NOAA who have already blown the tracking predictions as IRMA has moved south instead of curving North, expect this storm to be lesser than the hype.
MORE AND MORE WE ARE DEALING WITH GOVERNMENT HYPE FROM ITS MONOPOLY WEATHER OUTFIT NOAA.
Governments stay in power just as many Religions by selling the antidote to a lot of hyped up fear. In the case of Houston like much of the Gulf, land falls below sea level and they can get bad flooding. Those events don’t happen often but they happen. Houston itself was built because of the Galveston Hurricane in 1900. In that case Galveton was 8 ft. above sea level and they had a storm surge of 15 feet which covered the island with over 10 feet of storm surge. Houston is vulnerable.
Lets not forget that Houston is a large metro area which well over 6 million people.
So the damage to homes estimated at 40,000 homes is terrible, it is not a very large number in a city of this size. Industrial Houston fared fairly well. Most all of the homes damaged and destroyed were due to flooding of low lying areas.
Our present view is this storm is more hyped than Mayweather v Mcgregor.
The hype sold tickets for pay per view. The Hurricane Hype sells all kinds of rubbish. First it sell Government as your friend and protector. That’s certainly garbage. Secondly it sells the endless rabble of global warming as these warmist hope and pray for the Storm of the Century as proof of their apocalyptic religion.
It also sells the plastic local media who want to become stars of the moment. This is the old Brian Norcross syndrome. Just once I want to see the Weather Girl have all her clothing blown off by the hurricane and continue boldly broadcasting. The more they hype the more relevant they become.
Then there is State Government. Governor Scott of Florida was so off base with Matthew predictions last year he is no longer making predictions. That is good and prudent. But he’s crashing the symbols for preparedness and adopted a watch and wait view at present. That’s ok. There is a fine line between being rational and crying in a microphone for more body bags.
When you go to websites that are pushing the NOAA view be aware that it is nothing but a hyped fear trip.
The global warming clowns are everywhere pushing for their apocalyptic storm as proof positive that global warming has produced some form of SUPER KILLER HURRICANE vastly larger and more powerful than anything in history. This is of course insanity.
The NOAA bunch gets funding from the US Guberment so their view is always tainted. They have created the notion that exaggeration will better move people into action. The trouble is that it often moves them to act irrationally.
Evacuation involves significant risk. Traffic and irrational drivers is a huge risk. In Matthew as we said, more people were killed on the highways in Florida than from the storm. In spite of the dire warnings by politicians such as Rick Scott, Governor of Florida, Matthew never made landfall in Florida. By the time it made landfall in Charleston it was a CAT 1 storm. But the Global Warming screwballs and NOAA their facilitator don’t care about being rational.
Yes be prudent. Keep watching but don’t panic. Don’t be swept up in the hype. We were lucky to have had a few years with no hurricanes. That shut off the hype for a few years. Hopefully this storm weakens as it comes toward the gulf over Cuba and dissipates quickly into a tropical storm. It has all the features of a tropical storm. The eye wall is unstable and reforming and it is slow moving. Maybe we all get lucky. We will just have to wait and see.
The data is so tainted out here that you can’t believe it. GFS MOS is predicting 106 mph winds in Miami by Sunday. Get this… they can’t predict the direction of the hurricane but they can send out the hyped wind speed. That is your NOAA government weather for you. Then you can’t trust any of the European spaghetti models. They are now geared to demonstrate Global Warming theory. So they really want the USA hit hard. Crackpots one and all.
One more reminder of the despicable state of liberals:
These worthless renter rats want as much destruction as they can get out of any storm. This is part of their nutty religion of the apocalyptic Global Warmist. Their theories are that hurricanes are man made. They are psychological misfits and mentally defective. And they are dangerous.
Wunderground.com is the worst. Of course we are banned for life from commenting on their website due to one post questioning the honesty of NOAA. The rabid global warmists went into absolute Snowflake meltdown. Anyone who challenges European or NOAA data is a heretic. I would rather be that than suffer the ravages of ignorance.
It is really very simple what I said. NOAA GFS MOS predicted Miami to have 106 mph winds five days out when in fact NOAA claims they cannot predict the actual path at this time. So they can’t have it both ways. In weather terms it is pure unadulterated hype.
Understand their motives. They don’t want these hurricanes to turn out to sea or avoid high population areas. They want the opposite. Look at Harvey. Harvey was a soaker to be sure but it wasn’t the wind that caused problems it was flooding. The greater Houston areas has over 6.5 million inhabitants. Plus it is the home of the US Petroleum Industry. They wanted revenge on the refiners and oil producers. After all, those rabid snowflakes actually believe the oil industry is to blame for Global Warming. There simply aren’t enough straight jackets to go around.
Here is another way they Hype you:
We have drawn the actual scale size of the hurricane as a white spot with a red dot. The dot represents the 40 mile area of hurricane winds. This is pretty hot stuff in the this red region. The White area which is roughly 140 mi in diameter is the area of tropical storm winds.
The cone they have is probability but theirs is round so its not really probability. It is exaggerated probability. As you see you can put about four actual hurricanes in the cone.
At this time we continue to project a westerly pathway threading the needle through the Straight of Florida with enough momentum to push it into the middle of the Gulf.
We realize the European and NOAA models disagree. However we feel the slowness of the hurricane will be more affected by the South Atlantic high than the lower over Southern states will will likely dissipate as the South Atlantic high pushes in and envelopes most of Florida.
I believe this hurricane will have to steer away from that high. We do not believe dissipating low over the Southern states creates a hole to run. We think the NOAA and European models were based on a much faster storm. This thing is running at 13 mph and could slow down even more. The South Atlantic high can push this storm much further south.
We think the Keys will take a hit but don’t see mainland southwest Florida getting hit. We think this storm is going into the gulf and even pushed down into Mexico. If the storm had been faster this would not have happened. But look at the enormous band of converging highs pushing down on this hurricane.
I just don’t see the escape hole for a dramatic turn north at cuba.
The alley between the North American high and the South Atlantic high only exists up in the mid-Atlantic.
Also the jet stream is too high to grab this storm and take it out to sea. A smaller jet steam wave has been suggested that may turn the storm northward.
All models had to be adjusted dramatically yesterday as Irma turned southwest. If this continues as we expect the models will position this hurricane into the gulf of Mexico and things could get a lot different from there.
Tuesday morning update:
As you can see, NOAA’s prediction of a shifting Northeast path have not materialized. The storm continues to move due west. So the spaghetti models to which NOAA and the European Warmists are sticking to shows that right hook up from Cuba. But they have had to move the models further west. I am sure they are doing that reluctantly. Remember the Global Warmist want storms to destroy as much as possible to represent their insane notion that man made global warming causes more violent weather. It is just nuts but believe me it is the mindset of NOAA and the Europeans.
Please note most of the spaghetti models are diverging west into the Gulf. There show one moving up the middle of the state. But most of them are moving off into the gulf with one moving toward Alabama. We think it heads toward Missippi, New Orleans and possibly Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. We also believe it will be met with a cold from and fragmented quickly into a tropical storm. This is a very small storm with an eye which is roughly 15 miles in diameter. The big winds extend about a 40 mile diameter. Tropical storm influence will extend in a 140 mile diameter.
The Global Warmist are of course keying in on Miami and Tampa as their best hopes for their apocalyptic revenge. We don’t think either cities will get anything more than a tropical storm conditions if that.
Our view remains that this storm will head Westerly. There is no impetus for the storm to change directions. We think it may cross Hispaniola and weaken and slip under Cuba. The probability of a hard right turn north at Cuba is low. There is a large high in the southern USA which is pushing downward. This storm is not being pulled up and east by the jet stream which doesn’t touch this storm. If anything this storm is going to continue to be squeezed west.
THE THREE HOUR HYPER-O-RAMA…. now CAT 5 with spaghetti models moving EAST AGAIN! YIKES.
So what is this showing? It is showing the European models basically hitting Mar-a-lago and riding up the East Coast. The NOAA models are aiming at TAMPA of course but also going to the panhandle. There is one spaghetti trail that hits Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Melbourne, Cape Canaveral then leading up through Orlando and turning toward Jacksonville. The Europeans covered all the major cities except Tampa with one spaghetti. Bottom line. Computer models don’t change this fast in 3 hours without human prejudice entering the picture. Ah yes the rock solid basis upon which the Zience of Global Warming is based… Human Prejudice.
And according to these Euro models, Cuba will not be touched. Why? Castro is not a Global Warming DENIER!
As we say, don’t panic. Every weather report you are getting is based on Government Monopoly Weather.
Be prepared but don’t bite into the Global Waming apple. Floridians have lived with hurricanes forever. Nothing has changed even with the birth of Al Gore’s rebirth as the Global Warming Messiah.
Oh and let me rain further on the Global Warmist’s death parade. Mar-a-lago is not going to be hit by this hurricane. Though to be sure expect Global Warmist holdouts to be calling for major destruction in Florida and fudging data whenever possible.