AMAZON ECHO GOOGLE HOME ALPHAGO CRUSHING IBM GINNI ROMETTY PLEASE EXIT
At the turn of the 20th Century Railroads were the richest and most powerful companies in the world. But somehow with all that money and power they missed the Automobile and later missed the Aircraft revolution. Eventually most railroads went broke. In my eyes they made two big mistakes. First they pandered only to the rich and powerful. Secondly they didn’t really believe in individualism. They believed in regimentation. AMAZON ECHO GOOGLE HOME ALPHAGO CRUSHING IBM GINNI ROMETTY PLEASE EXIT.
IBM is an old Railroad company on the way out. It is happening before your eyes.
One of the more annoying aspects of being a stockholder in IBM is the deluge of PR article broadcasting IBM’s Watson and the IBM Cloud. Everything is roses but the earning. If you look closely at IBM you might say they are a computer company or a software company or a Cloud Storage Company or an Artificial Intelligence company. They are big but so were the Railroads. And just like the Railroads each of those aforementioned mentioned businesses have been eaten away by competition. Buffett’s observation which is idiotic, is that IBM has big powerful competitors. That’s the silliest thing I have ever heard. The best competitors are microscopic. Doesn’t surprise me that Buffett owns a railroad and newspapers. Google and Amazon were nothing in the 1990s!
Buffett gets a forum to bellyache about IBM but I don’t.
IBM only lets you communicate with them by snail mail unless you want a salesman to call. Snail mail ends in the circular file. No I want to get in touch with Investor Relations and explain to them why they are pitching into the sea faster than they imagine. Also I think Watson is an insult to anyone that actually is intelligent. I will explain that later. But I will give you a hint. Remember the girl in your high school that had wonderful grades but actually sucked at math. She had the neatest handwriting in the class. She was the model student a model regurgitator. Only trouble is she was entirely useless because she couldn’t think. IBM would love her. Watson is modeled after her.
Old school digital business was hardware. But today hardware is a commodity. IBM doesn’t take well to the abstract.
Even as the internet was born thanks to Al Gore, so he claims, IBM was still selling mainframes and leasing them to the the elephant sized Fortune 500 Companies who’s management knew next to nothing about technology. IBM just didn’t see what was happening. So they led at nothing. Bigness has little to offer but inertia.
What does all this have to do with IBM? IBMers all wear blue suits including the business suited woman. They are all stiff and programmed.
They just don’t think right. The drive to conform is the worst trait anyone can cultivate. Yet parents spend their lives destroying their children’s individual zest for life. IBM is the apex of conformity. If you turn your kid into a zero send them to work at IBM or the phone company. Whoops the phone company went broke.
All their lives these plastic parents and their plastic kids strive for conformity. If they go to law school they all want to be partners of the biggest firms. If they go corporate they want to be cogs of the giant corporations. They want in so badly they bleed from the kidneys. But then when they finally arrive what do they want? They all want to get out. They lament their lives and the enormous waste of time. So they hang on in jobs they hate just to enjoy the promise of a lavish retirement.
Sadly my own mother espoused the same thoughts that one should get a good job with a big corporation IBM, then retired and enjoy life. My folks retired early… and were building their retirement dream home on the second fairway. With six row of brick on the foundation, my mom passed away in her sleep. Her reasoning flawed by reality. Retirement over. That is what happens when people stop living today and bank on future things.
Part of conformity is the illusion that you will be paroled someday. Never happens. The mind jail doesn’t need bars to destroy your life. People who retire get old and scared. It is the rare bird indeed that loves being free from his hanging albatross. But most have no identity left after they leave their jobs. The phenomenon is well know to long term prison inmates that are released in old age.
IBM doesn’t hire renegades. They hire politically correct politicians. The men and women enunciate. They don’t talk. They give measured responses.
Jeff Bezos hires renegades. Google Hires renegades. Microsoft used to hire renegades but not any more; they only hire diversity now; genius is much too dangerous to be around the diversity set; they may make someone look stupid. That would be a hate crime. Apple just hires gay fashion designers; though they may very well be renegades of a type. Apple makes beautiful looking hardware and they have done it for years. Good for Apple.
How does a chump like me learn stuff?
True I have a couple of advanced degrees but that is like getting a ticket punched in a subway; just learn to sit. I am talking about practical know how! The answer is Youtube and Google. It is the greatest university ever created.
I do my own engine work, diesel, electrical, plumbing, septic tank, dental bonding, you name it. Youtube University has it all. And its a bunch of daring renegade chumps like me. It is a bunch of nobodies that fix their own stuff and build wonderful things. There is plenty of natural genius out there too.
I grow olives. Want to know how to make olives edible? Youtube. What does Watson know about olives? Nutt’in! “An olive is a drupe…”
I learned to sew on a sewing machine from Youtube. In fact the machines I bought were those classic 50’s Singers. I researched them online. When I started to learn how to sew, I would watch these women with their marvelous perspicacity and their splendid delicate digits doing skillful artistic things. And its endless and its free! It’s marvelous! Education like this didn’t exist twenty years ago.
How in the crap didn’t IBM see any of this coming? The Cyclone was all around them. The story is the same as the Railroads. No renegade blood in their DNA: blind as bats without any sonar.
IBM has missed every computer and digital revolution since Al Gore invented the Internet. Every stinking one of them has passed IBM by the wayside. Something as simple as the Google Search engine. IBM could have built this. But they didn’t. Renegades built Google. IBM wasn’t so sure they wanted to get “involved” with the internet. They built no browser. They contributed nothing to the development. It didn’t look very useful to them. They missed the AMAZON commerce revolution, Paypal, Ebay and streaming video. IBM management simply didn’t conceive of a global merchandising scheme. They have never believed in the individual.
IBM missed out entirely with the handheld market. At one time IBM was the biggest chip maker in the world. They have done nothing but lose ground. In the Cloud they are nobodies. In servers… nobodies. Software… nobodies. No renegades mean no progress. But everyone has had a good IBM retirement. Remetty is the highest paid female CEO in history. She has brought this company to it’s knees. There you go. IBM is still clueless.
Why are Bezos and Google beating IBM in the cloud?
Simple. Amazon and Google give me or you, the renegade hacker, free storage space and free access to cloud tools. They want me to use this stuff to learn adn create. They welcome my ideas.
IBM doesn’t give me any free storage or access to their cloud or cloud tools. They don’t want me. I am a renegade hacker jerk loser surfer chump backdoor alley-cat scrambler troublemaker. Yup that’s me.
I do quant math do they want me? NO! I DON’T BELONG THERE! But but but… Amazon wants me and Google want me! They also want you. IBM doesn’t want me or you.
What about Watson?
Watson is garbage. It is nothing but a regurgitation machine. It is the girl with the good grades that has neat handwriting and a politically correct empty brain. Watson only talks in commercials. Amazon Home and Echo Talk.
With Echo and HOME I can talk to it and get a pizza delivered or get a step by step recipe and they will talk me through all. I can’t order a pizza with Watson. With Echo and Home I can ask them to make phone calls, get the weather, check stocks surf the internet. Watson get Nutt’in!
And each day more and more of the public chumps like you can me purchase Echo, Dot or Home. The Tide is coming in! For IBM the tide is going out.
Right now you are watching IBM get pulverized by yet another revolution and THEY ARE FREAKING CLUELESS!
Artificial Intelligence will start with talking electronic personal assistant interfaces and access to information. The simple task of buying a pizza or making your own pizza is where it will begin. This will progress to interaction and self learning. These devices will learn you.
I can envision a day when a mechanic is working on a jet engine in the middle of nowhere and his assistant will guide him step by step through trouble shooting and rebuilding a jet engine. I can see doctors using it to help order the right test or to examine A priori and a posteriori data. Hospitals are looking at Echo to assist patients to give them access to media and the outside world. This is the cusp and IBM is lost. The Railroad is dying.
Though I am an alley-cat that most mothers of daughters hated, I have managed to scrounge two advanced degrees as stated previously. But believe me I would be treated like pure dirt standing in the IBM HR department if I was looking for a job. I simply don’t belong. They would regard me as an undisciplined plague of locusts on their calm measured articulate environment. They don’t believe in inspiration and firepower of the mind. The IBM Culture killed that long ago. IBM is a welfare state.
One of my areas of interest is CANCER. What got me started on hating Watson was MD ANDERSON linking with IBM “to cure cancer” with Watson. That turned out to be a big fat fail. Most importantly those of us who study cancer know the complexity and the desperation of patients. It is not a worthy public relations pitch to sell the virtues of Watson as a super brain that will cure cancer. That is just simply fraud and false hope. IBM is never going to cure a single cancer with Watson.
Think about it. Is that girl in your high school with the good grades and nice handwriting going to find a cure for cancer? Crap no. It will be one of the renegades like one of the surfers I knew when I was a junior surf rat. It will be a guy like Kary Mullis RENEGADE!
Kary in case you are unfamiliar invented PCR, Polymerase Chain Reaction for which he won the Nobel Prize. It is the single most important genetic breakthrough in the history of mankind to date. Other important discoveries have followed. It was inspired, brilliant, simple, elegant perfect! It was 100% RENEGADE!
Neither MD ANDERSON nor IBM would have ever given Kary the time of day back when. But Bezos and Google would have found a kindred spirit.
This is Kary giving a Ted Talk about rocketry when he was a kid. Imagine him walking into the HR Department of an IBM facility looking for a job. That HR woman would toss him out the door. Because you see at IBM, image is everything. Kary slouches, he stutters, he munders. In the end it would be the HR Director that would crap can him before he even got started. She would see nothing of value in Kary Mullis at all.
To get a job at IBM you need to bring your plastic smile, your briefcase… its like visiting a prestigious Frat house during Rush in the movie Animal House this time you’re Flounder.
Back in the late 1990’s IBM made a proprietary computer called Deep Blue that played Chess.
What did they do with it? Nothing. Deep Blue beat the World Chess Champion 3.5 to 2.5 then they packed it up and put it away. They could have set it up to play others on the internet or thousands of players at the same time. But instead they boxed it. Deep Blue used brute force to analyze every possible chess move. Chess moves are limited compared to the game Go. So Brute force only works with relatively simple games. It doesn’t work with Go. No more fun and games for IBM.
Now IBM has Watson. It memorizes stuff and organizes it in Tree format. This jazz is called Expert System; it is no more than memory and catalog. Name the steps to trouble shoot a chainsaw. Great. I will watch the guy on youtube.
Watson Ain’t cutt’in it because Watson can only regurgitate defective research; it can’t do experiments and it can’t do anything.
Watson claims to read lots of research. But it can’t think! In simple terms There hasn’t been a shred of improvement in stage four cancer outcomes since the 1970s. Why? It is because the approach to cancer is consistently wrong. It is wrong year in and year out, decade in and decade out. Watson is reading garbage in but can regurgitate it perfectly. The approach is wrong. Watson is what is called an Expert System. It regurgitates.
Googles Alphago from their Deepmind division is not a brute force program. While Watson beat Jeopardy champions by pure memorization of facts, Alphago beat the world’s Go champions by deploying a split personality. Alphago plays Go against itself to learn the game. What this means technically is it can learn most anything when fed basic strategies. However taken to its most elemental level it is suggested that Alphago may soon be able to learn a game such as Go from scratch and master it rapidly. This would model human learning. This is true AI. It is not human intelligence because humans enjoy playing games. That is leaving the tarmac by a long distance.
Machines would have to have some kind of pleasurable reward system. Stephen Hawking and Musk are full of crap. A computer program isn’t going to wake up one morning and kill humans to secure its survival. It will never have a competitive motivation. That is why renegades succeed and the IBM zombies don’t. Renegades always find a strategy to get what they require. So they don’t get hired at IBM so they start companies like Alphabet and then feed off IBM anyway.
The reason nobody respects the high school girl with the good grades and lovely handwriting is because she doesn’t really think. She is good at school work because she memorizes like Watson. She memorizes and regurgitates. The better you memorize the better you do in American secondary schools. That leaves the thinkers in a lurch but that is for another day.
IBM is missing the boat again! And Watson is their big gun fizzle. That is not good. They have fallen behind Alphago!
IBM is still stuck in the 1980’s listening to DISCO muzak.
The board of Directors made a political gender statement when they placed Ginni Rometty in as CEO. She has led IBM downward. Creativity has tanked. Morale has tanked. Rather than being a tech company on the move, IBM is now the cheerleader for little girls that want to be CEOs. Oh and isn’t that freaking precious? Apparently it is a roll model for failure.
I can’t think of a single business that IBM is engaged in where it is the world’s leader. Watson compared to Alphago is Neanderthal vs Homo Sapien.
Ginni has bought dozens of companies and none have done much of anything for the bottom line except lose money. She has propped the stock up with buy-backs and reduced R&D.
This Railroad is dy’in [Said in Al Pacino style from “Scent of a Woman”.
Worse the Culture of IBM hasn’t changed. It’s a bunch of blue suits stiffs that enunciate in measured politically correct responses. They are a lifeless bunch.
But but but Ginni is the highest paid female CEO in the country. Last Month Buffett sold off 1/3 of his IBM holdings stating publicly that management has not lived up to expectations.
Sure they have… IBM is the Railroad.